USDJPY crashes amid Japan’s export boom

The USDJPY pair continues to move within a strong bearish impulse, with the price currently at 143.57. Find more details in our analysis for 21 May 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

• Japan’s exports rose 2% year-on-year in April
• Japan’s trade balance for April showed a deficit of 115.85 billion yen
• Markets are watching for a possible meeting between the Japanese and US finance ministers
• USDJPY forecast for 21 May 2025: 141.45

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is falling for the seventh consecutive trading session, supported by strong Japanese trade data. In April, exports rose by 2% year-on-year to 9.157 trillion yen, marking the seventh straight month of export growth, although at the slowest pace in that period.

The yen also gained support from a narrowing trade deficit. In April 2025, Japan’s trade balance recorded a shortfall of 115.85 billion yen, significantly better than the 504.69 billion yen deficit a year earlier. However, the result still fell short of market expectations for a surplus.

Market participants are closely watching for a potential meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The talks are expected to address currency market developments, particularly the yen’s sharp appreciation.

USDJPY technical analysis

The USDJPY pair has broken below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and is now consolidating below the 144.60 support level. Today’s USDJPY forecast anticipates continued downward movement with a target at 141.45.

Technical indicators confirm the bearish scenario: Moving Averages are directed downwards, signalling a persistent downtrend, and the Stochastic Oscillator is forming a Head and Shoulders pattern, which could trigger another wave of selling.

Consolidation below 143.35 would add to pressure on the pair and signal an acceleration of the decline.

Summary

Strong Japanese trade data and expectations of high-level currency talks continue to pressure the US dollar. USDJPY technical analysis signals that the price gains bearish momentum after breaking below the key support level, opening the path towards 141.45.