Brent declines as US crude oil inventories rise

Brent prices dropped to around 64.00 USD following the release of US crude oil inventory data from the EIA. Discover more in our analysis for 22 May 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

• Market focus: US crude oil inventories rose by 1.328 million barrels according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), while a decrease of 1.85 million barrels had been expected
• Current trend: trading in a sideways range
• Brent forecast for 22 May 2025: 63.20-65.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices declined on Thursday following an increase in US crude oil inventories. The EIA reported a 1.328 million barrel build last week, contrary to expectations of a 1.85 million barrel decline. Gasoline and distillate inventories also rose, despite forecasts for declines.

Additional downward pressure came from the fall in the US stock market, fuelled by concerns over the growing budget deficit. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting US-Iran nuclear deal negotiations this weekend, which are currently helping to ease fears of another escalation in the Middle East.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent shows a downward correction following its recent rise. Prices are currently trading within a broad sideways range between 63.00 and 66.00 USD. The breakout direction from this range will determine the asset’s next move.

The short-term Brent price forecast suggests the pair could rebound to 65.00 USD and higher if bulls hold above 64.00 USD. Conversely, if bears push the price below 64.00 USD, the pair may decline further towards 63.20 USD.

Summary

Brent quotes are falling following the EIA’s report of a 1.328 million barrel rise in US oil inventories. Investors are now awaiting the outcome of this weekend’s US-Iran nuclear talks.